2026 FIFA World Cup
The 2026 FIFA World Cup gets underway in less than a month away. But a new World Weather Attribution study has scientists concerned that many matches will take place in dangerous heat conditions.
Football’s biggest tournament is returning to North America for the first time since 1994.
The 2026 FIFA World Cup will feature 48 national teams and 104 matches played across 16 host cities over 39 days, making it the largest men’s World Cup ever staged.
On average, July is the hottest month of the year for the contiguous US, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
Climate scientists are warning about the increasing risk posed by extreme heat.
Researchers from World Weather Attribution analysed historical weather data, climate models and projected tournament conditions at host venues across the United States, Canada and Mexico.
The study focused on Wet Bulb Globe Temperature, otherwise known as WBGT.
It’s essentially a heat stress measurement that combines air temperature, humidity, wind and solar radiation and is commonly used in sport and occupational health guidance.
Researchers found that about 25 percent of matches could exceed a Wet Bulb Globe Temperature threshold of 26 degrees Celsius, conditions where sports medicine guidance recommends mandatory cooling breaks and increased medical monitoring.
“In the FIFA World Cup for 2026, we’re looking at roughly 25% of games to be played in conditions that will exceed 26 degrees (Celsius) or higher of worldwide global temperature. What that means is according to the guidelines and recommendations is that cooling breaks will be highly, highly, highly essential,” says Joyce Kimutai, climate scientist at World Weather Attribution.
The report also identified around five matches that could exceed a Wet Bulb Globe Temperature of 28 degrees Celsius.
Under international heat guidance used in elite sport, those conditions are associated with significantly elevated risks of heat illness, including heat exhaustion and heatstroke.
“About another five games will be played in conditions that will exceed 28 degrees (Celsius) of worldwide global temperature and in those conditions, it’s really almost unsafe to play, and we should be thinking about postponement. We should be thinking about rescheduling. When we produce our results, we’re not trying to be prescriptive to say, this is what you need to do. I think for us, we do the science, and we say that these are the results and that this is (what we’re) likely to expect and we also give chances in percentage of having that,” Kimutai says.
The 2026 tournament will be played in cities including Miami, Atlanta, Dallas, Houston, Philadelphia, Kansas City, Monterrey and Mexico City.
Several venues regularly experience temperatures above 30 degrees Celsius during June and July, combined with high humidity levels.
The report says humid conditions are especially dangerous because they reduce the body’s ability to cool itself through sweating.
Researchers warn that supporters may face even greater risks than players because many spectators will spend long periods outdoors travelling to stadiums, queuing and sitting in direct sunlight.
“What happens when your body is exposed to extreme heat is that you feel exhaustion and fatigue and for some players, (it) could be that they’ve become acclimatised to some of these conditions because of course, this is World Cup, we’ve seen players from all over the world coming. So for some players, it might not be very dangerous. But for some players, it might be conditions that they have not experienced at all, or they’ve not been exposed to at all, but I think the situation is even worse for fans, because fans could be people coming with different morbidities or different pre-existing conditions,” Kimutai says.
The study compared projected 2026 tournament conditions with the last men’s World Cup hosted by the United States in 1994.
That tournament became known for severe heat during matches in cities including Dallas and Orlando, where on pitch temperatures exceeded 40 degrees Celsius during daytime kick offs.
Researchers say the probability of exceeding dangerous heat thresholds is now substantially higher because of long term global warming.
“What we did in this study is that we compared the chances and the intensities of these events happening now versus when US held the last World Cup tournament, which was in 1994. What we see is that in most of the venues, the risk of exceeding 26 degree of world global temperature is quite high,” Kimutai says.
According to the study, climate change has increased the intensity of extreme heat events at host venues by between 0.7 and 1 degree Celsius.
Scientists say that rise is significant because the Earth’s average surface temperature has warmed by approximately 1.3 degrees Celsius since the late 1800s.
“These risks are escalating quite a bit. So you see that for the intensities of these thresholds that we looked at, so the 26, 28 and 32 that we look at, we are seeing an increase of another 0.7 to 1 degree and that might sound significant when you say one degree, it might sound like it’s a small number, but it’s really a big number. Because you can imagine from 1850 until now, our planet has warmed by 1.3 (degrees celsius) and we’re already seeing these widespread impacts affecting the entire society, human and natural systems alike,” Kimutai says.
The tournament opens on 11 June 2026 at Mexico City’s Estadio Azteca and ends on 19 July 2026 at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey.
It will be the first FIFA World Cup hosted by three countries and the first that’s been expanded from 32 to 48 teams.
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