Fishermen’s boats in Lake Chad. PHOTO/Grid-Arendal.
By PATRICK MAYOYO
A new report has revealed how armed conflict, climate change and dwindling natural resources are colliding in the Lake Chad basin, fundamentally reshaping the lives of millions across Central and West Africa.
The study by GRID-Arendal paints a stark picture of a region where environmental pressures and insecurity are no longer separate crises, but deeply interconnected forces turning one of Africa’s most vital ecosystems into both a lifeline and a battleground.
For years, the Lake Chad crisis has often been framed in simple terms: a disappearing lake or a hotspot of insurgent violence. However, the report challenges this narrative, arguing that such a narrow view risks ineffective policies and failed international interventions.
Instead, researchers describe a complex socio-ecological system where climate shocks, environmental degradation and conflict reinforce one another.
“This crisis is not just about conflict or climate,” said Natalia Skripnikova, an expert on nature impact. “It’s about how the two are reinforcing each other in ways that are putting both people and ecosystems at risk.”
Lake Chad, once among the largest lakes in the world, has shrunk by around 90 per cent since 1960. Yet contrary to popular belief, it has not vanished.
Today, it has evolved into a dynamic patchwork of wetlands, islands and seasonal waters. This mosaic continues to sustain tens of millions of people through fishing, farming and pastoralism.
According to Louise Lieberknecht, a senior expert in marine sustainability, the lake remains “a reservoir of water that sustains millions,” supporting a natural resource economy critical to livelihoods across Chad, Cameroon, Niger and Nigeria.
INFOGRAPHIC/Grid-Arendal.
Situated in the Sahel; one of the world’s most climate-vulnerable regions, Lake Chad is increasingly subject to erratic rainfall and prolonged droughts. While water levels have stabilised somewhat in recent years, the lake remains a fraction of its former size.
Rainfall varies dramatically across the basin, from less than 100mm annually in the north to around 1,000mm in the south. This variability, coupled with rising temperatures, is intensifying competition over land and water.
The region’s rich biodiversity, including wetlands that support vast bird populations and large mammals such as elephants and giraffes, is also under growing threat.
The report highlights how insurgent groups have embedded themselves within this fragile environment. Dense wetlands and remote woodlands provide natural cover for armed groups, enabling them to evade counter-insurgency operations.
At the same time, these groups are increasingly exploiting the region’s natural resources. They extort fishermen, farmers and pastoralists, control access to fertile land and grazing areas, and tax local trade networks.
There is also evidence of links to transnational organised crime, including illegal wildlife trade and mining.
Violence and extortion are driving widespread displacement, forcing communities into new areas where pressure on already scarce resources intensifies.
MAP/Grid-Arendal.
This has disrupted traditional systems of land and water management, fuelling tensions between farmers and herders competing for the same land.
Climate change is exacerbating these conflicts, making rainfall patterns more unpredictable and deepening water scarcity.
Experts warn that the crisis cannot be addressed in isolation. Environmental, social, economic and political factors are tightly interwoven, requiring a coordinated and multidisciplinary response.
The report forms part of the Climate, Peace and Security Lake Chad Project, led by Norwegian Institute of International Affairs, which aims to assess regional stabilisation efforts and develop more effective strategies.
Researchers stress that understanding these interconnected dynamics is essential not only for stabilising the Lake Chad region, but also for preventing similar crises elsewhere in Africa.
Failure to grasp the full picture, they warn, risks repeating past mistakes.
As the report concludes, only a systems-level approach — one that integrates environmental management, conflict resolution and sustainable development — can offer a path towards lasting peace and resilience in one of the continent’s most fragile regions.
