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Trump’s tariff could devastate Brazil’s small-scale coffee producers

Experts warn Trump’s tariff will hurt Brazil’s family farmers, who produce two-thirds of the country’s coffee output.

Employees work on a farm during the coffee harvest in Braganca Paulista, Brazil [Andre Penner/AP Photo]

Published On 25 Jul 202525 Jul 2025

In Porciuncula, Brazil, small-scale coffee farmer Jose Natal da Silva is losing sleep – not just to protect his arabica crops from pests, but over fears raised by a new 50% United States tariff on Brazilian goods announced by President Donald Trump.

The tariff, widely seen as a political move in defence of far-right Trump ally ex-President Jair Bolsonaro, who faces trial for an alleged coup plot, could slash demand and prices for Brazilian coffee in its top export market.

Brazil is the world’s largest coffee exporter, sending 85 percent of its output abroad. The US buys 16 percent of that, making it Brazil’s biggest coffee customer. Experts warn the tariff will hurt competitiveness, especially for family farmers who produce two-thirds of Brazil’s coffee and have fewer resources to weather downturns or shift to new markets.

Last year’s climate change-driven drought already devastated crops. Now, falling arabica prices, down 33 percent since February, are compounding losses. “We struggle for years, and suddenly we might lose everything,” said da Silva, who grows 40,000 trees and other crops to survive.

Nearby in Varre-Sai, Paulo Menezes Freitas, another smallholder with 35,000 trees, fears he may be forced to abandon coffee farming. He says the tariff also affects essential imports like machinery and aluminium. “It feels like the ground is crumbling under us,” he said.

Despite the blow, Brazil’s coffee exporters remain cautiously optimistic. The Council of Coffee Exporters of Brazil (Cecafe)’s Marcio Ferreira believes US buyers can’t afford to stop importing Brazilian beans. But on the ground, small farmers fervently hope for a rollback before livelihoods vanish.

Coffee farmer Jose Natal da Silva, who began working in the fields at age 12, now faces uncertainty after the US imposed a 50 percent tariff on Brazilian goods, including coffee. [Bruna Prado/AP Photo]

The US is the largest buyer of Brazilian coffee, representing 16 percent of exports. Farmers fear the tariff will affect demand. [Bruna Prado/AP Photo]

The tariff follows political tensions, as US President Donald Trump criticized the trial of Brazilian ex-president Jair Bolsonaro. [Bruna Prado/AP Photo]

Small-scale producers say the tariff could reduce their already narrow margins, especially as climate conditions become more unpredictable. [Bruna Prado/AP Photo]

Arabica prices have dropped 33 percent since February 2025, according to the University of Sao Paulo, creating further challenges for growers. [Bruna Prado/AP Photo]

To manage low profits, da Silva supplements his income with small-scale production of cassava, bananas, citrus, and eggs. [Bruna Prado/AP Photo]

In rural municipalities like Porciuncula and Varre-Sai, coffee farming is the primary source of income for most families. [Bruna Prado/AP Photo]

Experts say small producers will be most affected, as they have limited capacity to redirect exports or absorb financial losses. [Bruna Prado/AP Photo]

Farmers say the tariff may also raise the cost of essential imported materials, such as aluminium and farming equipment. [Bruna Prado/AP Photo]

Paulo Vitor Menezes Freitas, who owns 35,000 coffee trees, says many growers may stop planting coffee if prices fall further. [Bruna Prado/AP Photo]

Coffee growers in Brazil’s interior say the combination of climate effects and global trade shifts has added pressure on daily operations. [Bruna Prado/AP Photo]

Brazil exports 85 percent of its coffee production. The country remains the world’s largest coffee producer. [Andre Penner/AP Photo]

Family farmers produce more than two-thirds of Brazilian coffee and are especially exposed to fluctuations in global demand. [Andre Penner/AP Photo]

In 2024, a severe drought caused by climate change reduced yields. Many producers sold early, missing the price increase. [Andre Penner/AP Photo]

As prices fall and export conditions shift, farmers across Brazil are assessing whether coffee production remains viable. [Andre Penner/AP Photo]

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