Slovenia’s liberal government faces tight race as conservative opposition surges

Slovenians head to the polls next Sunday for a parliamentary election that could see the conservative opposition retake power from the liberal government of Prime Minister Robert Golob.

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While the conservative leader Janez Janša has long held a lead in the polls, the gap has closed significantly in recent weeks in the former Yugoslav nation of two million people.

Janša, a three-time prime minister and ally of Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, has campaigned to restore “Slovenian values,” focusing on the “traditional family” and cutting state funding to NGOs.

Also an admirer of US President Donald Trump, Janša has frequently clashed with Brussels and drawn mass protests at home, with critics accusing him of attacking media freedom and the judiciary and of undermining the rule of law during his third mandate as prime minister, which ended in 2022.

“If the right-wing bloc wins, this would mean the fall of another liberal stronghold in Europe,” argues political commentator Aljaž Pengov Bitenc, noting the rise of far-right parties across the continent.

‘God, homeland, family’

Janša has gained popularity over Golob’s centre-left coalition with its economic measures, including new contributions for elderly care and changes to corporate taxation.

“This government has carried out Cuba-like experiments,” Janša said, on the sidelines of a recent rally in Celje, northeast of the capital Ljubljana, where hundreds of supporters gathered. He accused Golob’s government of behaving as if “money grew on trees.”

Gaja Grcar, a 22-year-old student attending the Celje rally, criticised Golob’s government that legalised same sex marriage, arguing it “does not support our values, maybe even goes against them,” which are “God, homeland and family,” Grcar said.

Golob’s image also took a hit after accusations of abuse of power over the appointment of top police officials.

A narrowing gap

In response to the challenge, Golob has adopted the slogan “Choose construction instead of destruction.” Instead of holding large rallies, the Prime Minister has focused on ribbon-cutting ceremonies for health and infrastructure projects.

Although Janša’s Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) has been leading the polls for some time, the gap has recently narrowed, thanks to government measures such as the introduction of mandatory Christmas bonuses and hikes in pensions and a guaranteed minimum wage.

A poll published last week by daily paper Delo found SDS has 22.4% support, while Golob’s Freedom Party (GS) is polling at 20.3%.

A survey published in the Dnevnik daily at the weekend put GS ahead for the first time, with 24.1% support and SDS just behind with 23.2%.

On the international front, Golob and Janša are not that different, as both have strongly criticised Russia’s war against Ukraine, the US implementation of tariffs, Washington’s position on Greenland and its support for Israel’s war in Gaza.

Golob, a political newcomer in 2022, topped the vote that year, propelled by anger over the Janša government’s crackdown on civil liberties.

Golob’s party gained 34.5% of the vote against 23.6% for Janša’s faction.

“Everyone saw this (Golob’s) government as a saviour, a messiah…and they inevitably ended up disappointed,” analyst Pengov Bitenc said.