Slovenia heads to the polls on Sunday in a closely contested race between incumbent Prime Minister Robert Golob and right-wing former Prime Minister Janez Jansa.

Opinion polls currently suggest no clear winner between Golob’s Freedom Movement (GS) and Jansa’s Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS), with the outcome likely to hinge on smaller parties and coalition-building.

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Jansa has served three times as prime minister, between 2004-2008, 2012-2013 and 2020-2022.

Golob’s domestic agenda has been broadly reform-driven and welfare-focused, with a mix of social policy, green transition, and institutional reforms, something Jansa has promised to reverse by introducing tax breaks for businesses and cutting funding for welfare programs.

The election will also decide which direction the Alpine nation, which gained independence in 1991, will take on foreign policy, especially given the wildly divergent views on Israel and Palestine.

Slovenia’s government has been an outspoken critic of Israel’s war; in contrast, Jansa is a staunch supporter of Israel.

Diverging views on Israel-Palestine

For a small nation – roughly the size of New Jersey in the United States – home to two million people, the Israel-Palestine conflict has played a significant role in its politics.

Slovenia’s current government has openly criticised Israel’s actions in Gaza and the occupied West Bank, even introducing a ban on imports of goods produced in the occupied Palestinian territory.

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In May 2024, the country recognised Palestinian statehood, raising a Palestinian flag alongside the flags of Slovenia and the European Union in front of a government building in downtown Ljubljana.

In May 2025, Slovenia’s President Natasa Pirc Musar told the European Parliament that the EU needed to take stronger action against Israel, condemning “the genocide” in Gaza.

Later in the year, it banned far-right Israeli cabinet ministers Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich from entering the country and became the first country in the EU to ban all weapons trade with Israel over its genocidal war on Gaza.

It has also backed Slovenian International Criminal Court (ICC) Judge Beti Hohler, after she was sanctioned by the US for her role in issuing arrest warrants for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and former Defense Minister Yoav Gallant.

In a letter sent to the EU heads of state on March 13, Golob and Musar warned that Europe’s refusal to condemn the sanctions indicated that “concern for economic consequences has taken precedence over a principled defence of judicial independence and international justice … at a moment when armed conflicts rage, when international law is being violated, when the victims of the gravest crimes look to the ICC as their last hope for justice.”

Nika Kovac, a Slovenian sociologist and cofounder of the 8th of March Institute, a nongovernmental organisation focused on human rights, told Al Jazeera that support for Palestine is in part rooted in the fact that Slovenia is “a very young country”, which means “there is … solidarity with countries that want to be independent, and they cannot be.”

However, the country’s approach to Palestinian rights could shift if pro-Israel Jansa were to be elected.

Jansa has been a close ally to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and lambasted Slovenia’s decision to recognise the state of Palestine, with a statement from his party claiming it was tantamount to “supporting the terrorist organisation Hamas”.

Accusations of ‘foreign information manipulation’

In the lead-up to the election, a series of covertly recorded conversations was published online, featuring a Slovenian lobbyist, a lawyer, a former minister and a manager.

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The videos purportedly show the individuals discussing ways to influence decision-makers in Golob’s coalition to expedite procedures and secure contracts.

On Tuesday, Golob accused “foreign services” of interfering in Slovenia’s elections, after a report by the 8th of March Institute and investigative journalists claimed that representatives of the Israeli private spy firm Black Cube had visited the country in December and Jansa’s headquarters in the weeks leading up to the leaks.

On Wednesday, Slovenia’s Intelligence and Security Agency confirmed the arrival of Black Cube representatives in Slovenia and presented a report on foreign interference in elections, which the agency’s director said was alleged to have been carried out at the behest of people in Slovenia.

The State Secretary for National and International Security in the Office of the Prime Minister of the Republic of Slovenia, Vojko Volk, made a statement following the announcement, saying, “According to information available to date, representatives of Black Cube have stayed in Slovenia on four occasions over the past six months.”

On Thursday, Golob sent a letter to European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen notifying her of “alarming information regarding what appears to constitute a grave instance of foreign information manipulation and interference currently unfolding in the Republic of Slovenia”.

French President Emmanuel Macron told reporters on Thursday that Golob “was the victim of clear-cut interference” by “third countries”.

“Today, in every election in Europe, there is interference that disrupts electoral processes,” Macron said.

Jansa has admitted to meeting with a Black Cube representative but denied any wrongdoing.