Djibouti
Djibouti’s leader Ismail Omar Guelleh is expected to win a presidential election on Friday, extending his 27-year rule of the highly strategic Horn of Africa nation.
Guelleh, 78, is one of Africa’s longest serving leaders and has ruled the nation of around one million people with an iron fist since 1999.
He has turned the arid former French colony into an international military and maritime hub for both the United States and China.
With the opposition divided and largely silenced, Guelleh faces a single, low-profile opponent.
He has campaigned across the country dressed in green, with a matching jersey and cap.
“There’s not much at stake. It’s just a token competition,” said Sonia Le Gouriellec, a Horn of Africa expert at Lille Catholic University.
In a volatile region, Guelleh casts himself as the guarantor of stability in a nation nestled between old foes Ethiopia and Eritrea.
To its south lies Somaliland, a self-proclaimed republic with a deep-water port and airfield whose unilateral independence from Somalia is recognised only by Israel.
The United Arab Emirates — which Djibouti accuses of destabilising the Horn of Africa — is thought by numerous experts to have been behind Israel’s recognition of Somaliland. It has denied that.
Last year, Djibouti struck a partnership with the UAE’s ally-turned-rival Saudi Arabia to run its port at Tadjourah.
Military bases
The country’s stability has drawn foreign military powers to establish bases there.
France’s biggest military base in Africa, counting some 1,500 soldiers, is in Djibouti, while China, Japan and Italy have troops in the country too.
Djibouti is also home to the only permanent US military base in Africa, with some 4,000 troops supporting “anti-terrorist” operations on the continent, notably in Somalia.
Djibouti has a unique location between Africa and the Arabian Peninsula.
It is situated at the mouth of the key Bab al-Mandeb strait, a narrow waterway between the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden and one of the world’s busiest shipping routes.
Without agriculture to rely on, Djibouti depends on its ports for 70% of gross domestic product, with Ethiopia its main maritime outlet.
Now, with the Middle East engulfed in the war pitting the United States and Israel against Iran, shipping in the Bab al-Mandeb strait is under threat, possibly from Iran’s allies, the Houthi rebels in Yemen.
But the presence in Djibouti of military from China, another ally of Iran’s, “protects the country from attacks by the Houthis” for now, said Le Gouriellec, the Horn of Africa expert.
‘Masquerade’
Just over 256,000 people are eligible to choose in Friday’s election between Guelleh and Mohamed Farah Samatar, a former member of the ruling party and head of the Unified Democratic Centre (CDU), which has no seats in parliament.
Omar Ali Ewado, head of the Djibouti League of Human Rights (LDDH), has called the vote a “masquerade” and said it is a “foregone conclusion.”
“The person who will challenge President Guelleh is a member of a small party subservient to those in power,” he told AFP.
Djibouti is accused by human rights organisations of repressing dissenting voices. It ranks 168th out of 180 in the 2025 press freedom index by Reporters Without Borders.
The head of state is also accused of favouring his Issa ethnic group over the minority Afar, who complain of being marginalised.
Guelleh won re-election in 2021 with 97% of the vote, in a ballot largely boycotted by the opposition.
That was meant to be his final term but parliament voted to remove the 75-year age limit for presidential candidates.
Asked whether Guelleh, who has difficulty walking, will see out his sixth mandate, Le Gouriellec said it depended on his health.
“Those around him, especially his wife, his stepson and his daughter, are in the front row and are already influential,” she said.
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