Among the wide-ranging ramifications of the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, Iran’s participation in the FIFA World Cup 2026 has become a key talking point, with the tournament less than 100 days away.

The global sporting event will be co-hosted by Canada, Mexico and the United States from June 11 to July 19, with Iran among the 48 nations expected to travel to North America at least a week prior to the opening game.

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US President Donald Trump says he doesn’t care if Iran participates in the World Cup or not.

“I think Iran is a very badly defeated country. They’re running on fumes,” Trump told the American news site Politico on Tuesday.

The US and Israel launched attacks on Iran on Saturday that have killed at least 1,045 people, including its Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, and sparked a regional conflict that has spread to 12 countries.

Tehran responded by launching waves of missiles and drones at Israel and towards several military bases in the Middle East where US forces operate.

Following the escalations, Iran’s spot at the World Cup has come under question, and officials from the Iranian football federation and FIFA have been noncommittal on the world’s 20th-ranked football nation’s participation.

“After this attack, we cannot be expected to look forward to the World Cup with hope,” Mehdi Taj, president of the Football Federation of the Islamic Republic of Iran (FFIRI), told local sports portal Varzesh3 on Sunday.

Uncharted territory

A leading expert on sports and geopolitics believes that Iran’s participation in the tournament is in serious doubt amid an armed conflict between one of the host nations and a participant.

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“Ultimately, the diplomatic solution [will be] that Iran itself just steps aside and withdraws from the tournament,” Simon Chadwick, a professor of Afro-Eurasian sport at the Emlyon Business School in Shanghai, told Al Jazeera.

Chadwick said it’s “very difficult” to see the US allowing players, backroom staff and officials to enter the country.

“The US will not be keen to admit [Iranian] players, officials or medics – who normally travel alongside teams to tournaments.

“Given that they [Iran] are going to have to play their games in the US, I find it unlikely that they will be there.”

Despite the logistical quagmire and its unlikely resolution in a timely manner, Chadwick said withdrawal will not be an easy option for Iran, who will think “very long and hard before walking away”.

The last time a team pulled out of a FIFA World Cup due to political reasons was in 1950, when Argentina withdrew, citing disagreements with the Brazilian Football Confederation.

“We are in uncharted territory here,” Chadwick explained.

“We tend to associate boycotts and countries not participating in sport mega-events with the Olympic Games, where mass boycotts were seen in 1980 and 1984 during the Cold War.

“Typically, that doesn’t tend to happen in World Cups.”

Chadwick, who has written several books on the economy and politics of sport, believes the impact of withdrawal will not just be political, but also financial.

“On the one hand, we are living in very complex and sensitive times, and arguably there are reasons for a country either to withdraw or be banned,” he said.

“But we’re [also] living in highly commercial times, and the financial consequences of unilaterally walking away from what is arguably the world’s biggest sport mega event is an act of self-harm. We also don’t know how FIFA might react if a nation were to unilaterally walk away from its qualifying spot.”

Can sport diplomacy save the World Cup?

Despite the tournament being spread across three host nations, all of Iran’s matches are allocated to venues on the US West Coast.

This could largely be due to the presence of a sizeable Iranian community, especially in Los Angeles, where Team Melli will play two of their three Group G games.

According to Chadwick, had Iran been playing games in Canada or Mexico, the team could have swayed their decision to participate. But the organisers are unlikely to move the games out of the US now.

“It would be extremely unusual to take games to another country to accommodate one particular country, particularly when the president of FIFA and the president of the US seem to be very close,” he said, adding, “the relationship between the US and Canada, and the US and Mexico is somewhat complicated, too.”

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While FIFA hasn’t made a clear statement on the issue, its Secretary-General Mattias Grafstrom has said the world football governing body is monitoring the conflict and the situation emerging from it.

“We had a meeting today, and it is premature to comment in detail, but we will monitor developments around all issues around the world,” he said last week.

With the tournament a little more than three months away, FIFA said it will “continue to communicate with the host governments”.

Chadwick believes that FIFA will try to avoid an outcome where Iran is excluded, as it would cause a logistical headache and set the wrong precedent.

“What we’re more likely to see is sport diplomacy really kicking in,” he predicted.

“The last thing that FIFA will want is for a country to be excluded or simply not turn up because that does set precedent and puts pressure on FIFA.”

‘Sport’s cold war’

With the conflict raging on for the fifth day and spreading further across the Middle East, it is unclear when the Iranian football officials will take a call on sending their team to the US.

However, if Iran does opt to withdraw from the World Cup, it could lead to a sporting crisis.

Chadwick thinks the consequences could be wide-ranging and long-term.

“Politically, it would perhaps take us towards a new sports cold war, and what I find very interesting is that Russian President Vladimir Putin and Russia have been toying with the idea of creating a sports world championship called the Peace Games, that looks like the Olympic Games and sounds like the Olympic Games but it’s not the Olympic Games.

“And Russia managed to recruit over 70 countries to participate in that sports event.”

Such an event could find support from Iran, should it be left with no choice but to withdraw from the World Cup. It may even lead to the creation of a tournament similar to it, according to Chadwick.

“It’s not inconceivable that at some stage in the future, countries could create their own equivalent of a football World Cup, especially with FIFA being an organisation established by Europeans, having its headquarters in Europe, and its presidents typically being European.”

“Some countries may take this as an opportunity to think about alternative ways of staging global football competitions – almost like a football cold war.”

Despite the current scenario and the conflict’s expansion in the past few days, Chadwick believes organisers and leaders could still find a way to include Iran in the World Cup.

“If, at the end of the conflict, a new Iran emerges – in which big apparel companies can sell their products without sanctions or broadcasters can win big contracts – then the World Cup could play a role in building that diplomacy between the US and Iran, as well as reintegrating Iran into the international community.”